Week 11: Win and You're In

Seven wins and you're in, that's the magic number for the AF1 playoffs in 2025. Win seven games, and you are a lock to make the playoffs. The Storm are just one win away from clinching their fourth playoff berth in four seasons. This season however feels different, the Storm hold their fate in their hands and sit as a favorite to make it into the playoffs as opposed to previous seasons, where it took late-season magic to make it in. 

After nine games, the Storm are in the driver's seat for the second seed at 6-3, currently holding a 3-game lead on Nashville, which has the inside track on the third seed. In this article, we will examine some of the more likely playoff scenarios and the Storm's next opponent. 

Harsh Reality

There is a harsh reality facing the Storm, even though they have had the second-best record since early in the season, and hold a 3-game lead over 3rd place Nashville, they may still have to win out to be the second seed at the end of the year. You may read that statement and wonder how that's possible given that only three games are remaining for the Storm. The answer? Certain teams in the league will have only played 10 games, while the Storm will have played 12. 

Nashville currently sits 3-3, but plays just 10 total games this season, after having to quietly cancel a game against Corpus Christi and losing Wilkes Barre as an opponent. Currently, Nashville has 4 games remaining: hosting Oregon this weekend, then they go on a 2 Game road trip to Corpus Christi, and Billings, finally they come back home to finish out the season against Corpus Christi again. The prevailing thought from most is that there is a possibility that Nashville comes out of that stretch 4-0, finishing 7-3, with a 70% win rate. 

Corpus Christi could also manage a 7-3 record if they win out. This feels less likely; since their 3-0 start they have dropped three straight games amidst a large-scale exodus of their top players. Their path also includes a week 11 match-up with the undefeated Firebirds in Albany. Assuming that game goes the way most expect, Corpus will have to hope the Storm go on a losing streak and defeat a scrappy Nashville team twice as well. They are an 18.5 underdog on Bettorsedge.com. 

The Storm will play 12 games total and only have 3 remaining. If the Storm finish 2-1, their win rate would be 66.6% placing them in 3rd, assuming Nashville or Corpus Christi wins out. Suddenly that 4-point loss to Nashville in week 7 looks like a much bigger problem than originally thought. The only way the Storm can guarantee that they retain the second seed is by winning the last three games, which would put them at a 75% win rate when the season comes to a close, a percentage that no other team could achieve at this point. 

If the Storm began a losing streak to finish out the season, it would open up other possibilities including finishing as the fourth seed and making another trip to Albany before the championship game. The home-field advantage in round one has significant implications beyond that specific game. If the Storm finish as the third or fourth the path to the championship would require three straight road trips; to Salina in week 14, to Nashville or Corpus Christi, and Albany. A tough stretch for any team. 

Control What You Can Control 

As the cliche goes, all the Storm can focus on is what they control, and for now, that's defeating Washington this weekend. Washington may seem like an opponent that should not put up much of a fight, but the Storm can't afford to look past any opponent, and Coach Thomas said as much when speaking with him, reflecting on last season's 1-point loss to Washington on a last second hail-mary at United Wireless Arena. 

The Storm did defeat Washington on the road in week one 63-33, but this Wolfpack roster is not the same one they faced earlier this season. The Storm go into this game as 18.5-point favorites at home according to Bettorsedge.com. The Wolfpack are currently on a 3-game losing streak that saw them outscored 158 to 39. 

Washington Woes

The Washington Wolfpack have cycled through multiple quarterbacks this season, some due to injury, others due to disagreements, and some due to poor performance. As of right now, they have two quarterbacks heading into this weekend's match up. Dom Shoffner, and Adam Kruse. Kruse came in during the Storm's week 1 match up with the Wolfpack after an injury to Joesph Hess caused him to leave the game. Kruse then also was injured but finished out the game anyway earning the respect of coaches and players alike. 

Dom Shoffner comes over after starting the season with the Carolina Cobras of the National Arena League. Carolina was forced to cease operations for the 2025 season, leaving players like Shoffner looking for a new home. With a rotating cast of playmakers and offensive linemen around him, Shoffner managed to complete 26 of 64 attempts for 260 yards, 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions. So far with the Wolfpack, Shoffner has completed 17 of 40 attempts for 115 yards 0 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. However, where Shoffner can do some damage is with his legs, he is a true dual threat quarterback, he currently has 51 attempts for 151 yards and 5 touchdowns through 7 games, if he had strictly played in the AF1 this season that would place him in the top 3 in rushing this year. 

Adam Kruse on the other hand, is 49 of 99 for 454 yards for 9 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. He is however not the runner Shoffner is, with just 23 carries for 57 yards, and 2 touchdowns this season. Kruse is a veteran who has seen everything at some point during his career, but judging by how Washington has approached the last two games, we will likely see both quarterbacks in this game. Kruse and Shoffner have both taken snaps against Oregon, and Billings. 

Part of the issue for Washington has been their offensive line, they have allowed 8 sacks over the last two games alone, while only producing 78 yards rushing. If the Wolfpack are going to find success moving forward, they will need to figure out how to find a rushing attack to take pressure off of their quarterback, and keep the defense honest. Let's hope this is not the weekend they figure out the winning formula. 

Storm Offense

The Storm offense however is coming off of an explosive game that saw quarterback Jalen Morton produce 7 touchdowns, and over 300 yards of offense. Morton returned to the Storm after spending the bye week with the Birmingham Stallions, and looked as if he brought back a chip on his shoulder. With him at the helm, the Storm not only beat the Outlaws, they actually left points on the board as Charles Hall caught a deep pass late in the game, and putting the team before himself ran around near the endzone running out the clock to prevent any comeback attempt. Rather than score the easy touchdown, what would have been his 5th of the game, he fell down at the one as the clocks hit zeros cementing the 6th win of the season for the Storm. A selfless act, by a selfless player who has quickly become a fan favorite. 

The offense looks primed to put up points, and it will be up to Washington to figure out how to combat a potent offensive attack. The Storm defense may have allowed 56 points to the Billings offense, this was a unit that featured Darius Prince, Malik Henry, and many more arena football veterans considered some of the top players at their position. One player the Storm will have to be wary of, is Chei Hill, the current league leader in sacks with 10. He is a ferocious pass rusher, but he is not the only player in their pass rush who is dangerous. The offensive line certainly has their work cut out for them in that department. This should be a good game for both sides. 

Injury Attrition 

The Storm certainly have the firepower on both sides of the ball to add to that deficit. They will however be without Fullback Logan Wright this week as he was placed on 14-day IR on Wednesday. Joshua Moore returns after attending his college graduation last week to fill the empty roster spot. 

Wright is fourth in the league in rushing with 130 yards, having found the end zone 5 times on the ground. He also has 3 receptions for 31 yards and 1 touchdown, and 3 special teams tackles. In most AF1 offenses this would be of little concern they would simply plug in another big-body lineman. In the Storm's case, they lose a valuable piece of their offense. Coach Thomas says he hopes to have Wright back in time for two crucial divisional matches against Salina. 

Home Field Advantage

The Storm need your help in creating a real home field advantage! Bring your friends, your family, and help us pack out the United Wireless Arena this weekend, and our next game against the Liberty. Every game counts, and we need our 9th man there and doing their part to help the Storm earn home field advantage in round 1 of the playoffs. Get your tickets below. 

https://www.ticketmaster.com/southwest-kansas-storm-tickets/artist/2846541